Equicom News: 2010 Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival

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The field for the 2010 Caulfield Cup is of shockingly bad quality, so perhaps it is fitting that the top weight and betting favorite is named "Shocking". We think the result may shock a few people this year!

The links to the right of this panel can be used to display comments and information about the selected runner.

Below this panel, you will find the usual chart listing our top selections for the race. Please remember that if you are going to have a bet, don't risk more than you can afford to lose. Gambling can become a real problem if you don't stay in control.

1 SHOCKING (10), 57.0 - M.Rodd
He was trapped during the closing stages of the Turnbull Stakes on October 3rd, found a gap in the final furlong and switched on nicely to just miss by a nose to Zipping. This is a step up in distance of 400m but that is no problem for this horse and the wet track should be alright, as his heavy form includes a win in the Makybe Diva Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Queensland Derby (G1). One of the best chances despite weight, but he gets back and will have to fight out a finish on a track that will favor front-runners.

2 METAL BENDER (2), 56.0 - H.Bowman
Has been around the action for the past few starts and shows promise. Got back too far in the Turnbull and may not have been ridden to best advantage. Came home very well in the closing stages and may have been capable of better. Distance here will test him and his style of racing is not suited. Wet track won't be a problem and has to be considered a chance.

3 MR MEDICI (16), 55.0 - G. Mosse
Raider from Hong Kong with decent form and his experience in monsoonal conditions will be a big asset in this race. Should be one of the few better horses that go forward, and he will make it an honest contest. Definitely in with a really solid shot under the circumstances.

4 TOKAI TRICK (21), 54.5 - S.Fujita
He's far from the best horse that Japan could have sent, but with form around horses like Deep Impact and Eye Popper he would at least get some attention. But the heavy track and the wide draw look to have sealed his fate. This horse is running for refund money.

5 BUCCALETTI (17), 55.5 - S.King
Over-run in the Turnbull and he was injured in the running. Finished dead last behind superstart So You Think in the Underwood, and was also last in the Memsie behind Whobegotyou. Even with the slight improvement in the last run it would be difficult to see him winning this, but the wet track puts him even further out of contention.

6 HARRIS TWEED (9), 54.0 - B.Rawiller
Found form just in the nick of time at his previous run, winning in listed company by the narrowest of margins. Does his best when running midfield or on the pace, and that is good strategy at Caulfield. Wet track doesn't seem to be a problem, as he has 4 placings from 7 starts in the wet, but he has a high weight for his class. Chance with luck.

7 MANIGHAR (3), 54.0 - D.Oliver
Should prove hard to beat here, and by far the classiest horse in this field even if the form doesn't look flashy. Most recently, 2nd Prix de Kergolay (3000m), where he flew home late after being trapped on the rail and only just missed on the nod. That was a very impressive run and he's been freshened for this. Ticks all the boxes. Expected to win if he can get past the traffic.

8 MASTER O'REILLY (10), 54.0 - D.Dunne
Showed improvement last time, but still not sharp enough to make an impact on the finish. Won this race in 2007 but he's 8 years old now and starting to show it. Since that win, his best performance was 2nd in the 2008 Turnbull Stakes. Minor place at best, but doubtful.

9 MONACO CONSUL (15), 54.0 - C.Williams
Doesn't belong in this field. Done nothing special since winning the VRC Derby last year, unless you count a 3rd in the AJC Derby and 3rd in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes as being impressive. Form this campaign has been dismal and capped it off by running 12th of 16 in the Turnbull. Has 2 from 5 in the wet but on form minor place hopes are his best chance again.

10 TRIPLE HONOUR (11), 54.0 - L.Cassidy
Paying way over the odds, as he ran 3rd to C'est La Guerre in the Craven Plate last time, pushing forward early to settle just behind the tempo. With 6 starts on heavy for 2 wins and a 2nd, he must have some chance in these conditions, although a minor placing is probably his best hope again.

11 ZAVITE (19), 54.0 - B.Melham
Last in the Turnbull, drifting back from 2nd at the 1200m. Led the field in the Underwood but easily pegged back by So You Think, eventually finishing 4th by just over 4 lengths. Placed only once from 6 starts in the wet and looks set to turn out another bad performance in this race.

12 ALCOPOP (22), 53.5 - M.Zahra
Would be starting favorite if this was a dry track, but in the wet conditions he is likely to flounder, and the fact that he will get back early and has a terrible draw does not add much to his prospects.

13 HERCULIAN PRINCE (6), 53.5 - G.Schofield
Ran a strong leading race in the Metropolitan, fighting on at the finish and refusing to yield when challenged, eventually wining by 3½ lengths. Rarely runs a bad race but it looks like he needs a dry track to run to his best ability and he'll probably struggle in the conditions.

14 ZABRASIVE (13), 53.0 - C.Newitt
Not sure how he even made it into the field, let alone managed to get lumped with 53kg. His only decent win was in the Rosehill Guineas back in March. No form on wet tracks, and impossible to see him making much of an impression on the outcome of the race. He's just traffic.

15 DESCARADO (18), 52.5 - C.Munce
Very poor performance in the Turnbull when only beat 2 horses home. Dwayne Dunn said that the horse pulled up badly after the race but a veterinary inspection failed to find any abnormality. Form prior to that was good and if you're willing to write off that bad effort as a fluke then he may be worth considering. Looks like he has slipped under the radar and wet track form is respectable, never out of the placings in 4 starts, and 2 of his 3 wins have been on wet tracks. Chris Munce getting the ride is something of an omen.

16 JESSICABEEL (20), 52.5 - J.Winks
Hasn't fired at all this campaign, and if anything she actually seems to be getting worse rather than better. Extra distance should help a bit but not enough wet track starts to work out how she will handle it. Very low weight for a Sydney Cup winner.

17 FAINT PERFUME (7), 52.0 - G.Boss
Taking her time to show some form, but this could be her chance to improve, which she is known to do without warning. As a 3YO she was outstanding, but the unknown factor is if she can recapture that form. Even if she does, she should still struggle due to her style of racing as the track doesn't suit. Two wins from 6 starts in the wet. Better off at Flemington. Weight is a joke.

18 DARIANA (8), 51.5 - L.Nolen
Dreadful run in the Turnbull Stakes, following a very good effort in the Underwood. May have found it too hard hard to bounce back after that, so fitness is in question and this horse seems to need a dry track to show her best.

19 MOURAYAN (22), 52.0 - N.Hall
Another horse that doesn't seem to belong in a race of this class. Best result so far has been 3rd in the 2009 Irish Derby. Since then has run 2nd to Profound Beauty in the Ballyroan Stakes, and 5th in the St Leger at Doncaster. Following arrival in Australia has run a long series of terrible races, with the only exception being the most recent start, 2nd to Herculian Prince in the Metropolitan. The big mystery is how a 5YO horse with only 2 wins to his credit from 14 starts manages to get into a Caulfield Cup field.

20 RED RULER (1), 53.5 - M.DuPlessis
Scratched from the David Jones Cup in preference for this race. Hasn't won since recording a hat-trick of wins in January back in New Zealand. Form this campaign shows gradual improvement, but it looks like he needs a dry track. He'll want to lead but may struggle to get clear from an inside draw where he'll be under pressure from the get-go.

21 DRUNKEN SAILOR (4), 53.0 -
Excellent record on slow tracks. Winner of the March Stakes, and was 2nd in the Silver Cup at York. He's a former hurdler who, like Vintage Crop, has shown great promise since swapping to flat racing. No question that he can get the trip and he'll manage the swim without problems if he gains a start.

22 VALBEMORO (14), 50.0 - J.Maskiell
Scratched from the Turnbull to run in the Benalla Cup where she could do no better than 4th if it was an honest run. Drops 7kg for this race, and although she usually gets back in her races it looks like their only hope is to press forward earlier and hope to steal a march on her rivals. Probably needs a dry track to reach her full potential which doesn't seem to be much to begin with.

BetBlaster News: 2010 Caulfield Cup Preview